ANALYSIS / OPINION:
Negotiations would go well in Vienna to get the United States to join the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran (the JCPOA) and convince Iran to reverse the steps it has taken to withdraw from it. agreement in response to former President Trump’s withdrawal in 2018. They could lead to a deal this summer.
Not only will such a deal reinstate the deeply flawed Obama-era deal, without holding Iran responsible for breaching its commitments. All of the terms will provide the Ayatollahs with a huge financial windfall worth more than $ 150 billion when President Biden removes the more than 2,000 sanctions that Mr. Trump has imposed on the regime. Tehran is certain to spend these funds as it did with the $ 150 billion in sanctions relief it received under the JCPOA in 2016: increasing its military budget, supporting terrorist proxies and interfering. in regional crises.
To make matters worse, Iranian President-elect Ebrahim Raisi confirmed this week that Iran will not agree to the “phase two” talks proposed by the Biden administration that would follow a return of the United States to the JCPOA, whose goal would strengthen the nuclear deal, and address Iran’s missile program as well as its destabilizing activities in the Middle East and its support for terrorism.
But there is a new wrinkle in Mr. Biden’s Obama-style effort to appease the terrorist sponsoring state: The Iranian government wants a guarantee from the United States that it will no longer leave the JCPOA and will not leave the JCPOA. will not reimpose sanctions in the future.
From my nearly 20 years of working as a CIA analyst, I have learned to be careful of speculation and predict the future. But in this case, I can guarantee with 100% certainty that unless there is a drastic change in Iran’s bellicose behavior, the next Republican President will immediately reverse Mr. Biden’s appeasement. to join the JCPOA and reimpose the Trump sanctions.
It’s an easy call. Mr. Biden’s Iranian policy is completely separate from the reality of Iran’s growing threats and its proven violations of the JCPOA, the supposed intention of which is to prevent the mullahs from developing nuclear weapons.
Bipartite criticism of Mr Biden is mounting for his desperation to join the nuclear deal. This criticism will escalate when security in the Middle East crumbles after Iran is no longer shackled by Trump’s sanctions.
The Iranian regime has an excellent intelligence network in Washington. I suspect Iran is aware that Mr. Biden has alienated Republicans on this issue, and therefore the regime is urging the visibly weak president to create some sort of legal ban that would force the hands of a future U.S. president to be able to withdraw the United States from the JCPOA and reimpose the sanctions.
Iranian leaders do not understand how American democracy works and that unpopular decisions imposed on our country by a president of one political party are usually quickly overturned when a candidate from the other party wins the White House.
Biden officials will certainly try to fix this to convince Iran that any deal will force future presidents to keep America committed to its policies. They will likely say that the Republican Party is unlikely to win a presidential election in the foreseeable future by repeating Mr. Biden’s assertions at the G-7 summit that the Republican Party “is drastically down in numbers,” his leadership “is fractured,” and that the Trump wing is the bulk of the party, but constitutes “a significant minority of the American people.”
The world does not believe it. Iran neither. They know Mr. Biden is basically an accidental president who has proven to be divisive and weak. They know that Mr. Biden’s mess on US foreign policy, border security, and the economy makes it increasingly likely that a Republican will win the 2024 election. So Iranian leaders reasoned, “ why should we waste our time negotiating a nuclear deal with an American president who already looks like a lame duck?
So ironically, by asking for an impossible guarantee that the United States will not withdraw from the JCPOA again or reimpose sanctions, the Iranian leadership could unwittingly keep the United States out of this terrible nuclear deal. But more importantly, in doing so, Iranian leaders will be doing the United States a service by protecting America and the world from Mr. Biden’s incompetence.
• Fred Fleitz, President of the Center for Security Policy, served in 2018 as Deputy Assistant to the President and Chief of Staff of the National Security Council. He previously held national security positions with the CIA, DIA, State Department, and House Intelligence Committee staff. Twitter @fredfleitz.